Episode 74: Your Post-Pandemic Economy

Description:

We are hearing a lot of discussions about the COVID vaccines and, more recently, talks about what is going to happen after the pandemic. In this episode, New York Times best-selling author Jim Rickards joins Tom Wheelwright to talk about the post-pandemic economy. Mr. Rickards has a new book coming out titled The New Great Depression, Winners and Losers in a Post Pandemic World.

SHOW NOTES:

04:58 – A look at the pandemic and the legislation supporting COVID recovery

06:33 – Why the ‘pent-up demand' hypothesis was wrong

09:12 – What will we see in the next 12 months? The double-dip recession

10:21 – The downside to the current selective residential real estate boom

13:26 – The pandemic ripple effect

15:38 – The S&P Six

16:37 – Who's going to win in the next 10 months?

18:13 – What small businesses should be doing right now

24:44 – Why the next depression could last 30 years

Transcript
Announcer:
This is The WealthAbility® Show with Tom Wheelwright. Way more money, way less taxes.

 

Tom Wheelwright:

Welcome to the WealthAbility Show, where we're always discovering how to make way more money and pay way less tax. This is Tom Wheelwright, your host, founder and CEO of WealthAbility. So, all this talk about vaccine, there's also talk about post-pandemic, a couple of questions come up. First of all, who's going to win post-pandemic. And same question is what's really going to happen post-pandemic? And I'm very grateful to have a good friend, one of the smartest people I've ever met, and certainly one of the experts on predicting the future of the economy, Mr. Jim Rickards. Jim is the author of many New York Times bestsellers, and has a new book coming out, The New Great Depression, Winners and Losers in a Post Pandemic World, which is exactly what we want to talk about today. So, welcome, Jim. And if you would, for those few people in the world who don't know who you are, if you would, just give us a little bit about your background.

Jim Rickards:
Yeah. Thank you, Tom. It's great to be with you and great to be on the show. And you're right, the new book is coming out in literally a matter of days. I happen to have an advanced copy here. It's The New Great Depression, Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World. So, it's exactly as you introduced it and exactly what we want to talk about and look forward to doing that. Yeah, my own background, I got a graduate degree in international economics, but then went on to get a law degree, actually two law degrees, and had a long career. Started actually as an international tax counsel to Citibank, so deeply immersed in the tax world, and then mid-career switched it to securities and derivatives and spent a lot of time in investment banking, hedge funds, I ran a stock exchange for a while, and then spent 10 years working with our friends at the CIA and financial counter-terrorism.

Jim Rickards:
I wasn't jumping out of helicopters with a knife between my teeth, but I was working on ways to identify and interdict bad actors acting through the financial service. We invented a new branch of intelligence called markint, which is market intelligence. There's humint, which is human intelligence. Sigint which is signals intelligence. We invented market intelligence and I took that further and built some working prototypes of some systems. And then, somewhere along the way, I was doing an interview and got a call from a literary agent. She said, “Jim, I heard you on NPR, I think Planet Money was the show, and would you like to write a book?” I said, “Interesting,” I think was my exact response. “Let's have lunch,” and we hit it off. My first book, Currency Wars came out in 2011 and then I've been writing books ever since, and doing a lot else besides. So, either I had an eclectic career or I couldn't decide what I wanted to be when I grew up, but I've been able to do a number of things that all connect, whether it's investing, legal, national security, intelligence. They're connected in a lot of ways more so than ever, and I've done all those things.

Tom Wheelwright:
Well, it's always thrilled me, of course, that you started your career in tax. I never ended my career in tax. So, we have that in common. On top of that, I think tax actually is a major player in what happens in the economy. So, first of all, we had a little bit of chat about this before, how long do you think this pandemic is going to go on and what's going to happen in particular in the next 12 to 18 months?

Jim Rickards:
Well, a couple of things. Number one, the pandemic will go on longer than most people expect. So, it's been call it a year. There might've been an earlier case, but the first case that was well documented was November, 2019 in Wuhan, China. It spread from there in China, by January it had spread to Italy and the United States, then it grows exponentially, but you start with small numbers that start doubling every couple of days. Well, you go from 20 to 40 to 80 cases, but pretty soon you're at 10,000 cases and so forth and it keeps going from there. So, we had that first lockdown March to June, let's say, 2020. But if you go back to the conversation at the time, it was a, “Yeah, this is really bad. The pandemic's bad, obviously, the deaths were tragic, hospitals are being overwhelmed, et cetera, but we'll get through it. We have herd immunity, something will happen and by the summer we'll be able to reopen.”

Jim Rickards:
And you look at the legislation at the time, those bailout bills in March, April and May of 2020. And they were all $1 to $2 trillion each, throwing $4 trillion of debt on top of a $1 trillion baseline budget deficit. And those were talking trillions, not billions anymore, that's a little passe. But one way to think about it was a bridge loan from April to July. That whole payroll protection plan, loan [inaudible 00:05:30]. Which I'm not here to debate the policy, I think it was probably necessary, but if you got the money, the formula was basically two and a half months' payroll. So, take two and a half months' payroll, document it, apply, get the money.

Jim Rickards:
It was easier for some than others, but it was designed to keep people on the payroll through June on the theory that you could reopen the economy in June. Well, they tried to reopen the economy in June and it failed. There was a second wave of infections. Now, we're back to a second round of lockdowns. By the way, I'm forecasting a recession for this quarter, basically the first quarter of 2021, negative growth. This idea that, again, go back to last Spring. What were people talking about? They were using the phrase pent up demand. The economy is going to be fine, it's going to come [inaudible 00:06:19] back because it's pent up. And I go back to 2009. Remember green shoots? Everyone was talking about green shoots. Well, we had 10 years of 2.2% growth, post-1980 recoveries had average growth of 3.2%.

Jim Rickards:
We grew. There was an expansion starting in June, 2009, but it was 2.2%. And if you think 1% doesn't sound like a lot, apply 1% to a $20 trillion economy and compound it over 10 years. The lost wealth was $4 to $5 trillion. That's how much wealth disappeared and we left on the table because we didn't get back to try and grow. So, so much for green shoots. Well, the same thing with pent up demand. I tell people, “Well, in March and April, my wife and I usually go out to dinner on a Friday night. Well, March, April, May, we didn't go out to dinner. We were quarantined just like everybody else. By June, some restaurants started to reopen, and we went out to dinner, but we didn't order 10 dinners. We ordered one like we usually do. In other words, those other nine dinners, that was permanently lost. There was no pent up demand. That was a permanent loss, and apply that to airlines, travel, nail salons, bars, restaurants, dry cleaners, et cetera. Those were all permanent losses.”

Jim Rickards:
And then, everyone said, “Well, they'll rehire people.” No, if a restaurant closed during the first lockdown, and let's just say you did we open in July, if you had 20 waiters and bartenders you didn't bring back 20. You brought back maybe 10. So, the other 10 were lost. And by the way, that ignores all the restaurants that closed permanently. I'm using restaurants as an example, but there are many other examples of service businesses. They don't have $10 million of working capital. They're not like Apple is $1 trillion of working capital, but the point is they have maybe four weeks, eight weeks, some of them 13 weeks. And that's it, because you can be closed, but you still have to pay the rent, you still have to pay benefits, you still have to pay property taxes, et cetera.

Jim Rickards:
And so, you're running negative cash flow, and eventually, you run out. So, a lot of these places are never reopening. Now there's a vacant storefront, maybe somebody someday will come back and start a new restaurant. I expect that will happen, but not soon. So, we're not talking about temporary, there's no pent-up demand. These are not temporary losses, many of them were permanent. These are permanent job closures. Now, here's the point, Tom. People say, “Yeah, restaurant.” But they look at the stock market, stock markets are at all time highs, 401ks are up so it's all good. No, you cannot look down your nose at small business. Small and medium size enterprises are 50% of all jobs and 45% of GDP, and it's been destroyed. You cannot destroy or lock down 45% of GDP and expect the economy to come over and backward, get out of a recession.

Tom Wheelwright:
No, I agree. So, what happens in the next six months and the next 12 months, Jim, when you have all those businesses gone out of business and they're not coming back? I 100% agree, and most of our listeners are business owners. So, what is coming in and what do we see in the next six to 12 months?

Jim Rickards:
I'll talk about real estate for a second, it's a really interesting sector. Typically, as you cause, you obviously advise a lot of real estate companies you're an investor yourself, commercial real estate and residential real estate tend to move somewhat together. Not exactly, and not all the time, but if interest rates are low and the economy is booming, they're going to go up together or down together when you went to a recession. That's not true in this recovery, and leaving aside the fact that this may be… I think we're looking at double dip recession. We had a technical recession from February to June, 2020. My view is we're in a new recession right now. So, a double dip recession. We haven't seen that since 1980, '81, but we'll get through that eventually.

Jim Rickards:
But what's going on now is that residential real estate in certain sectors is booming, and it's booming for really bad reasons, which is there is an exodus out of the cities. People are leaving as fast as they can. They're leaving New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Chicago and other cities. And they're going to Phoenix, maybe Boulder, Nashville, [inaudible 00:10:42] New Hampshire, small town, but there's no income tax in New Hampshire. Obviously, Texas and Florida, Miami is booming, et cetera. So, you have this migration and we're talking millions of people, not 10,000, 20,000. All you have to do is look at the rates for renting a U-Haul trailer. If you're going from LA to Phoenix, it's $4,000. But if you're going from Phoenix to LA, it's $1,000 approximately. Well, that's because all the trailers are going one way, good luck getting them. I know people who've moved from-

Tom Wheelwright:
Nobody's moving into California right now.

Jim Rickards:
Correct. And that actually has political implications because the new census numbers are being finalized and California is going to lose two to three congressional seats, as will New York, and Texas and Florida are going to gain them. So, there are consequences, but the point being people are moving out of cities. Now, if you're somewhere in the New York area and you can't quite job everything and move to Nashville, they're moving to the suburbs. A nice place like Litchfield Connecticut or whatever, and of course work from home is a big part of that. People suddenly realize, “Hey, I don't have to be in New York,” and they're not going to. So, that's why residential real estate is booming selectively. Again, location matters. But in these targets. Commercial real estate is different, commercial real estate is crashing everywhere for partly because people are moving out, but also because of work from home.

Jim Rickards:
So, if you have 10 floors in a commercial office building in downtown New York or in Midtown New York, and all of a sudden they're vacant because all your employees are working from home, you may come back but you'll probably need two floors. And what you'll do is you'll have a locker room, attractive but a locker room. Offices will be temporary, so work from home employee will say, “Hey, I need the office for two days next week.” “Okay, confirmed.” You'll come in your locker, you'll have your laptop and sport coat and tie or whatever you need-

Tom Wheelwright:
It's almost like every business will have its own WeWork space.

Jim Rickards:
Well, that's exactly right, because WeWorks will be going out of business, partly for that reason, which is nobody wants to be clustered in a WeWork facility. They have other problems. Biggest rent tenant in the country, they rent most of their space with all the prime locations in a lot of major cities, can't pay the rent basically. But that aside, even for companies that have their own premises in landmark or major commercial real estate offices in major cities, they're going to go from 10 floors to two floors. They won't disappear. Well, that has collateral effects not only in terms of the rent, obviously, and the vacancy rate, which is going to skyrocket.

Jim Rickards:
But what about lunchtime shopping, food, trucks, restaurants, cleaning people, maintenance, people, et cetera. There are all these ancillary jobs, so the ripple effects have just started to play out and without mentioning names, but among some boards of some real estate companies and one of the top people, I can't mention the name, but if I did you'd go, “Yeah, that guy. Got it.” Told his people, “Keep looking, keep your eyes open, but you don't really want to touch commercial real estate until late 2021. At the earliest, maybe '22.” So, we have this bifurcation where residential real estate in what I call target jurisdictions, places people want to move either for climate or taxes or lifestyle, et cetera, the residential real estate is booming. Commercial real estate is collapsing across the board. Has not hit bottom. We have rent strikes or just rent abatements depending on the jurisdiction.

Jim Rickards:
I was a New York lawyer. The tenant landlord law in New York was always very favorable to the tenant in terms of occupancy and conditions, except when it came to evictions. And then, it was very favorable to the landlord. You could actually get an eviction done in 60 days, which is not true everywhere. That's not true anymore, they've suspended the eviction law. So, all of a sudden nobody's paying rent, either because they can't afford it or don't want to, you can't evict them. And that seems like a good deal for the tenants, it's like a subsidy. What about the landlord? Most of the landlords, the owners are leveraged. So, if I don't pay the landlord rent, the landlord can't-

Tom Wheelwright:
[crosstalk 00:14:56] the landlord, they can stop paying their mortgage.

Jim Rickards:
Correct. So, where does that loss fall? Eventually the landlords drop off the keys and walk away.

Tom Wheelwright:
Well, eventually it falls to the bank.

Jim Rickards:
Well, it might fault to the banks, but remember the banks are very good at securitizing the commercial mortgages and selling them to who? You and me. Look in your 401k. You have a high yield commercial real estate or you just might. I don't, but a lot of people do. They don't even know they own this stuff. So, here's the thing, it's going to take a year or more to play out. So, that's a big sector where the losses has not sunk in. The service sector we already talked about, that's been devastated and it's going to come back very slowly at best.

Jim Rickards:
The equity market, I call the S&P 500 the S&P six. We know who the six are. It's Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, and maybe I left one out, but the point being they're 40% because the S&P 500 is a cap weighted index. Those six stocks I just mentioned are close to 40% of the total cap weighting of the whole index. Throw in Tesla, I guess they were just admitted. Yeah, you get there. So, okay, there's some S&P six or seven or 10, or however many stocks is doing fine. What about the S&P 490, the other 490 stocks? The answer is they're flat to down. Individual exceptions, but on average, they're flat to down. So, do we have another tech bubble? Well, I'm not going to short it. I don't want to get run over by an 18 wheeler, but I'm not buying it either because it does have bubble dynamics.

Tom Wheelwright:
Who's going to win in the next 10 months?

Jim Rickards:
Cash, treasury notes, gold and silver, some alternatives. And as I mentioned, if you can find the right investment vehicle for residential real estate, again, when you talk about investment vehicles, weights or private funds, et cetera, to some extent in real estate location matters, but you got to look at the management. Who's running it, who's in charge of it? That's really what you're betting on, but if you've got the right area and the right management, and you can get into those funds, those should do very well.

Tom Wheelwright:
Hey, if you like financial education the way I do, you're going to love Buck Joffrey's podcast. Buck's a friend of mine, he's a client of mine, he's a former board certified surgeon, and he's turned into a real estate professional. So, he has this podcast that is geared towards high paid professionals. That's who he's geared towards. So, if you're a high paid professional, you're going, “Look, I'd like to do something different with my money than what I'm doing. I'd like to get financially educated. I'd like to take control of my money and my life and my taxes.” I would love to recommend Buck Joffrey's podcast, which is called Wealth Formula Podcast with Buck Joffrey. I hope you join Buck on this adventure of a lifetime.

Tom Wheelwright:
Let's say that you're a small business right now, like most of our listeners, what do you do? What do you do to make sure that you are one of those who thrives in the next 12 to 18 months instead of one of the big losers?

Jim Rickards:
Sure. Well, the first thing that a lot of people don't understand is diversification. Now, diversification is a really good risk management strategy. Everyone agrees on that, higher expected return with less volatility, that's the whole idea, but people don't understand how you diversify. You run into people, they go, “Well, I'm in 30 different stocks in 10 different sectors, so I'm highly diversified.” No, you're not. You're in one asset class, stocks. Okay, I understand maybe you've got some technology and consumer non-durables and minerals, whatever, but you're not diversified. You're in stocks. That's one asset class. Real diversification means not just more instruments in one asset class, but more asset classes. So, you can have some money in the stock market. I'm not saying sell all your stocks but not too much. Have some in alternatives. If you can get into [inaudible 00:19:03] real estate fund or other hedge funds like natural resources, et cetera.

Jim Rickards:
Have a big slug of cash, and this drives people crazy. I say maybe 30% in cash. People go, “Cash has no yield.” Well, first of all, we could be looking at deflation. Deflation is a more likely outcome than inflation, at least in the short run. In a deflationary world, cash can be your best performing asset because it has zero yield. But if you have 2% deflation, the real return on cash is 2% because your money's worth more, buys more. So, don't underestimate the impact of cash in a deflationary world. The cash has a couple of other benefits. Number one, it's the exact opposite of leverage. It reduces portfolio volatility. So, if you've got some volatile stuff over here, maybe gold or gold mining shares or technology and you've got some volatile stuff over here and natural resources or treasury notes or equities for that matter, cash has no volatility so it reduces the average volatility of the portfolio.

Jim Rickards:
So, you can have these sexy vests if you want, but you can still sleep at night if you have cash, but cash has another benefit, which is it gives you optionality. Cash in effect constructively is an at the money call option on every asset class in the world. Right now, visibility is tough. It's hard to know, I do talk about what's going to happen in my book and we're talking about now, but it's a challenge and things can change. Of course, you have to be nimble. So, six months from now or a year from now, we might have much better visibility. Well, if you're the person with cash, you can pivot into those sectors that make the most sense. But if you make all your bets now, it's very difficult to get out of it.

 

Jim Rickards:
Good luck getting your money back from Henry Kravis, say, he's going to keep it for seven years or whatever. So, my point being the person with cash has reduced volatility, which is a good thing, and higher optionality, which is also a good thing. And it's a deflation head, so there's a place for cash for those reasons. Treasury notes I would expect yield to maturity. It was going to be negative, so that'll be one of the great capital gains opportunities ever. And people go, “Wait a second. Negative interest rates? The Fed hasn't said anything about negative interest rates.” They're different. The Fed has a target policy rate on Fed funds. I don't expect that target to go negative. It's zero to 25 basis points right now, call it zero. Okay, so rates are at zero. I do not expect the fed to go negative.

Jim Rickards:
They could, but they've had enough experience from Europe, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan to know that negative rates don't work. You're through the looking glass. It's not more of the same, cutting rates from 2% to zero can help, cutting them from zero to negative one doesn't help because people actually say, “[inaudible 00:21:47], what signal are you sending with negative rates?” You're saying it's going to be deflation. Well, if I think there's going to be deflation, I'm going to defer consumption because prices are going to go down. That's the opposite of what the eggheads think but that's how real people think. So, you don't expect that, but that's not true in a ten-year treasury note because there's huge secondary market trading, so the yield to maturity on ten-year treasury note is not about the Fed policy rate. It's about how you and I want to transact.

Jim Rickards:
So, if I'm selling you a 10 year treasury note, and it has a strip of coupons, it's going to pay interest for the next 10 years or whatever, if you pay me a price that's greater than the present value of the strip plus the principal, your yield to maturity is going to be negative. You're going to get your money back and you're going to get all your interest, but you're not going to get what you paid me. Now, why would you do that? Well, you might do it because you think you can sell it to somebody else at an even higher price, which is possible. Also, European investors and other investors might like it because they're thinking in euros. So, even a negative yield to maturity in dollars can be a positive return in euros, if the Euro goes down against the dollar.

Jim Rickards:
So, there are reasons for this to happen, and we've seen it in a lot of other countries. I do expect that it'll happen. But with yield maturity right now at about 94 basis points, and that goes negative 10, 20 basis points, that's a huge capital gains opportunity. It doesn't sound like a lot, but I don't want to get into bond math or the [inaudible 00:23:14] convexity or the dollar value of one basis point. But the capital gain per drop in interest rates is greater when interest rates are lower to begin with, and that's where we are.

Tom Wheelwright:
That makes sense. It's a relative position.

Tom Wheelwright:
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Tom Wheelwright:
We've just got a few minutes left, but I've got to ask, to me this is the big elephant in the room, and that is Joe Biden and MMT and what effect will that whole philosophy have on the coming world? I'm not just talking about 12 months out, but five years out, 10 years out. You talk about the new great depression, you're not talking about a one quarter recession here, you're talking about something long-term.

Jim Rickards:
Correct. And technical definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP and a couple of other bells and whistles, but that's basically it, determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research up in Cambridge, but a depression is different. A depression, first of all, much longer. There's some research that says it could go on for 30 years [inaudible 00:25:03] Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which I talk about my book. But depression doesn't mean continuous declining GDP, what it does mean is GDP below trend. You can have growth in a depression as we did during the first great depression, but it's below trend because you started out from such a low level you never get back to [inaudible 00:25:21]. And that's what a depression is, and it has a lot of effects, but yeah, in terms of the effects of this, this will still go on for 30 years.

Jim Rickards:
Jay Powell says, “Interest rates, we're going to keep at zero until 2023.” Okay, try 2043, because that's what the research indicates. There's a paper I talk about in my book from an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and two academic colleagues that looked at a 650 year time series. That's my time series. I don't put much weight on one year time series, but it goes back to the black death of the 1350s. And it looks at every pandemic in which their were 100,000 or more fatalities. And of course the black death, they estimated about 75 million dead, the Spanish flu in 1918, they estimated around 100 million dead, but there are only two others where you had 2 million fatalities or more. One of them actually was the Asian Flu in 1958.

Jim Rickards:
But COVID, right now we're at 1.8 million fatalities. That's going to go over 2 million, so that's going to be the third highest fatality pandemic in the last 650 years. Right now it's fifth, but it's going to pass two others and become third. And what the research shows is that the times normalization, when did interest rates get back to normal, when did employment and investing in capital markets get back to normal? The answer is 30 to 40 years, not 30 to 40 months. And the effects of this, Tom, will be intergenerational. They'll be behavioral. I grew up in the 1950s and '60s, a very prosperous time in US economic history. I did not live through the great depression, but my parents did and my grandparents did. And I was raised with a depression mentality, even though I didn't live in one. We went out as nine-year-olds with wagons door to door collecting tin cans and newspapers.

Tom Wheelwright:
Same here.

Jim Rickards:
And we weren't doing it for environmental reasons. It might've been good for that, but we were doing it because you can recycle the tin to build tanks and battleships. And so, that didn't change until the late '60s when the baby boomers, then it was rock and roll and we all started spending money and borrowing money, et cetera. In other words, the behavioral and psychological impact of the great depression lasted for 30 years after the great depression. And that was not a pandemic, but it's consistent with this research. I have a bunch of grandchildren, but some of them are three, four or five years old. And they get ready for school in the morning, and they put on their coat and their boots and they put on a mask, and good reasons for it. But kids are very adaptive, but these are kids who are growing up thinking, “I got to wear a mask to school because there's germs in the air.”

Tom Wheelwright:
Well, my five-year-old and three-year-old, when we go for a walk and the people come and they say, “Oh, we have to move to the other side of the street because of the virus,” and it's absolutely imprinted in them, so I could absolutely-

Jim Rickards:
That's exactly right, Tom. But the point is it doesn't go away. It stays with you, and it affects behavior in lots of different ways. So, that's what we talk about in the book. So, it's not a gold book, but it talks about all of the [inaudible 00:28:36] talks about real estate, along the lines we described, equities and cash and other investment strategies. But I make the point that you can make money in good markets and bad markets. Great fortunes have been made, and there was one guy, Hugo Stennis, was the richest man in Germany during the Weimer hyperinflation because he borrowed in Reichsmarks, bought hard assets, coal, oil, and transportation assets, paid off all his debts in worthless money and kept the assets. He was known as the inflation king. So, the point being you can make money even in disastrous scenarios, but you have to see them coming. And that's what we talk about in the book.

Tom Wheelwright:
Well, a very final thing, it does seem that you're never really going to lose a lot with hard assets. Would you agree with that? Is that something that you can pretty much always depend on?

Jim Rickards:
Yeah, but you have to watch your bubbles, you can lose money if you bought gold in August, 2011, then the next four years were not a lot of fun, but we're not in that mode right now. We're past that. We've had the mini spike, we had the bottom, we're back in a new bull market for gold. I expect gold to go to at least $10,000 an ounce, possibly higher. And some of the other investment plays we talked about will do well. I expect treasury notes to do very well, cash is a good comforter because it reduces volatility, and I think natural resources will do fine, and residential real estate. So, yeah, all this asset categories should do very well.

Tom Wheelwright:
Awesome. Thank you, Jim. Once again, Jim Rickards, The New Great Depression, every one of Jim's books is a must read, so I'm very excited that this one's coming out so that I can read this one too. Jim, thank you so much for being with us, and thank you everybody. Remember that when we get this education, we're always going to make way more money and pay way less taxes.

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